Wednesday, December 08, 2010
By Roland Akosah
Now, unless Laurent Gbagbo’s fraudulent behavior is frowned upon and rejected outright, La Cote d’Ivoire will follow the all too familiar tragic path. To the political class, though, the charade is rather a clever wager. The incumbent stands a fifty percent chance of remaining in government and thus continuing to participate liberally in graft and other perquisites of African political office.
Laurent Gbagbo has been hurriedly sworn in as the President of La Cote d’Ivoire – having already served ten years in office. (He is believed to have the support of the military; those in the south of the country). His rival, Alassane Ouattara, being the clear winner of the election, has also declared himself the duly elected president. (Ouattara, too, has the support of the New Forces; the military of the north of the country). Thus an eerie stalemate now obtains. But for only a moment, though. For discordant and mutually hateful voices – repugnant to reason, compulsively aided and abetted by religious and ethnic convictions – are massing. Another African tragedy is inexorably in the making. Predictably, hurried efforts at diplomatic resolution by the international community are in the works. (Meanwhile, Gbagbo has inveighed against foreign interference in Ivorian internal affairs).
The stage is set for yet another African melodrama. The dramatis personae, as if having had several dress rehearsals, know their script all too well. The scene is set against a familiar backdrop: After several decades of post independence false starts, an African nation “comes of age”. Its ruling classes awaken to the regnant received wisdom: an abiding faith in good governance is a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainable development. In turns, a glasnost of political reforms and a perestroika of economic liberalization follow. Each step along the way, the ruling classes are amply given the heft of encouragement from development partners. An empowered citizenry lends spirit and action to the new sport – of free press, free speech and free markets. Chaos and logic assemble and compete for attention. Even so, every so often a visiting dignitary will extol the virtues of the social capital rapidly accumulating in the new fangled freedom.
Then the ruling classes must submit themselves to free and fair elections. Additional foreign aid is dispensed to implement this important transition to democracy. These days the foreign boosters must tread cautiously. In speech and in action they must be seen as demonstrating serene empathy and encouragement. Lest they be accorded all manner of epithets. On rare occasions in life, he who pays the piper NEVER calls the tune. Inexorably, though, the day of reckoning arrives.
The loser (in this case, the incumbent) charges fraud by his opponent’s supporters; the electoral commission dutifully annuls a portion of the vote and declares the loser the victor. (Prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall, there would have been only one candidate – the incumbent; his opponents would have been in jail, exile or, preferably dead. He would have won at hands down. Now, though, he must compete in order to gain international recognition and development assistance. But he needs not concede if he loses an election).
The victor (here the opposition candidate) resolutely determines that every eligible vote should count. He falls on the international community to exert pressure on the loser to concede in order to avoid political instability. He receives some measured sympathy from abroad. He stands his ground. In the past he would bolt the country as soon as he sensed any imminent threat to himself, family and followers.
More likely, ethnic and religious battles ensue with venom; innocent citizens lose their lives. For the political class, the shedding of blood is a necessary prize to pay for political power. Thus the noisy defiance, on all sides, represents an effort at abating the risk of losing power comprehensively. Notably, these days, it’s “the winner takes all”. One rentier class replaces another – a thought that is not gleefully entertained. The contrived conflict creates an opportunity for a mediated solution. And indeed the clear and present danger to political stability motivates a settlement based on power-sharing.
Sooner than later, a roving band of grey eminences – these days, largely made up of ex-African leaders – are charged by the international community to restore the peace. Consequently, a national unity government is set up. The loser-incumbent stays on as the President while the victor-opposition candidate becomes the Prime Minister, say. A special commission of enquiry is instituted to investigate the causes of the crisis and how to preempt a recurrence in the future. Occasionally, arrest warrants are issued for folks; accused of having instigated crimes against humanity. The continent is replete with examples – Zimbabwe and Kenya being the most recent. In the name of peace, all this has had the heinously unintended consequences of annulling the verdict of the citizen – the primary leader of any constitutional democracy.
Now, unless Laurent Gbagbo’s fraudulent behavior is frowned upon and rejected outright, La Cote d’Ivoire will follow the all too familiar tragic path. To the political class, though, the charade is rather a clever wager. The incumbent stands a fifty percent chance of remaining in government and thus continuing to participate liberally in graft and other perquisites of African political office.
Time has come to say in unison that enough is enough. Bid roguery cease! For appeasing rogue regimes with a methadone of power-sharing never eases their addiction to the potent crack cocaine of political power. For many a rogue, holding power is too much of a good thing to let go.
Roland Akosah
A Fellow of the African Leadership Initiative /Totum Bonum Class