DaMina Advisors Frontier Markets Reaction Note on Cote D’Ivoire

Friday, December 10, 2010 

COTE D’IVOIRE:The world’s largest exporter of cocoa slides into major constitutional crisis as the country’s highest legal body, the Constitutional Council, overturns election of opposition leader Alasanne Ouattara and says President Laurent Gbagbo was re-elected in the disputed November 28 vote…The electoral commission announced a day earlier that Ouattara had won the vote by 54% of the vote. The constitutional council says conversely that Gbagbo won by 51%…UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, ECOWAS, AU have recognized Ouattara’s victory, but that is unlikely to sway  Gbagbo.
SCENARIO I(likely 35% outcome)– Both results are invalidated under pressure from West African mediators and new elections ordered. In the interim consensus Prime Minister Guillaume Soro asked to hold power and organize new free and fair poll. Violence flares up in Abidjan and other major cities. Foreign business attacked and UN forces deploy to restore calm, but are attacked by Gbagbo supporters. Curfew stiffened as border remains closed.
SCENARIO II(likely 30% outcome)– Unity government with both Ouattara and Gbagbo, imposed by West African leaders with joint political agreement to effect constitutional change along the lines of Kenya or Zimbabwe.  Discussions over formation of unity government will however take some time to occur as distrust
levels are quite high between the parties. Low-scale political violence continues unabated. Curfew lifted after unity government is inaugurated.
SCENARIO III(likely 25% outcome)– Both candidates declare themselves president and attempt to set up rival governments – in the north and another in the south. Country drifts towards de facto breakup and possible civil conflict. Different West African, and non-African nations recognize differing rival governments as international mediation fails totally. Violence intensifies in ethnically mixed communities with large scale displacement of populations. 
SCENARIO IV(likely 10% outcome)– Ivorian military, which has historically stayed clear of national politics ,takes over power and places country under military rule pending  new elections. Military passes decrees banning both Ouattara and Gbagbo from new poll. Between 1999 and 2000 when the country was plunged into a similar major political crisis, the military took over under General Robert
Please feel free to contact my good friend Sebastian Spio-Garbrah,
Managing Director & Chief Analyst, African Frontier Markets Sebastian(at)daminaadvisors.com  for more detailed analysis