The United States implemented a new system of reciprocal tariffs on August 1, 2025. While Zambian exports to the United States now face a 15 percent general tariff, the reality is much more complicated.
The question is whether under this new regime Zambia can continue to count on US export earnings. Buyers will inevitably look at the prices each supplier is offering, and a small percentage of change can tip the market balance.
Zambia–US Trade Snapshot
The US trade relationship with Zambia has never been large, and has been confined to niche areas. Zambian exports to the US totalled $168.5mn in 2024, a small fraction of its total exports of around $11.5bn in the same year.
The dominant export among these is copper and copper-based products, which form the backbone of the Zambian economy and represent 70 percent of its total export earnings and 90 percent of its exports to the US. Other exports consist of textiles, precious stones, honey, and agricultural products, which make up around 3 percent of US imports from Zambia.
Zambia is currently a designated beneficiary country under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for 2025, which grants duty-free access to the US market for many eligible exports, including textiles and apparel. However, some AGOA-eligible countries have recently seen certain tariff increases, which may affect specific products.
The 15 percent tariff will apply to Zambian exports to the US, unless a particular product falls under an exemption category (like energy or critical minerals). AGOA benefits continue—but these US reciprocal tariffs introduce additional costs for non-exempt goods.
New Tariffs: What They Are and What They Cover
Agricultural exports are among the hardest hit by the 15 percent US tariff, since unlike semiconductors, they receive no exemptions under Executive Order 14257. For Zambia, this means honey, sugar, groundnuts, tobacco, coffee, fruits, vegetables, and even cut flowers are now subject to higher costs on entry into the US market. These sectors had been slowly expanding under AGOA preferences, offering opportunities for smallholder farmers and agro-processors to diversify away from dependence on copper.
In 2011, Sylva Holdings Limited, a Zambian food marketing and export firm, managed to gain access into the US market. The company had sealed a deal to supply thousands of tonnes of food items to the US on a monthly basis. Now the loss of competitiveness not only threatens firms like Sylva Holdings, but also undermines rural incomes and job creation in Zambia’s agro-industry.
The new tariffs strip away much of that competitiveness, leaving Zambian produce more expensive than comparable exports from Latin America or Asia.
Sector-by-Sector Impact
Copper and other minerals: Copper is still Zambia’s economic lifeblood, accounting for more than 70% of foreign exchange earnings and over 90 percent of US-bound exports. The exemption of refined copper from the new tariffs minimises their impact on Zambia but general trade disruption and tariff compliance may have second-order negative impacts. Additionally, President Trump has previously threatened to impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on copper imports which would cause a far greater hit to Zambian exports if implemented. President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements in April caused a 5.8 percent drop in copper prices within 48 hours, demonstrating the impact of tariff threats alone.
However, when the threat of 50 percent tariffs on copper imports was still looming as recently as July, the industry remained bullish on the copper trade with Barrick Mining Corporation CEO Mark Bristow confirming that their $2bn investment in Zambian copper mining would continue regardless. The eventual exemption of refined copper from US tariffs should protect such investments for the time being.
Textiles and clothes: The textile industry is particularly susceptible. Previous efforts to resurrect the industry were built around AGOA preferences. Without AGOA benefits, and with new tariffs, Zambian textiles make less economic sense for importers compared to producers in Asia or Latin America.
Agriculture and honey: Zambian honey and organic goods exports have experienced some recent growth. These now suffer from a 15 percent price disadvantage, which could inflict damage on export volumes. However, agricultural exports are a small fraction of Zambia’s total exports to the US meaning that the new tariffs should have a minor impact on an otherwise quickly-growing sector of the economy.
Employment: Export-dependent industries could cut jobs if orders from the U.S decline. Zambian agro-processing and textile jobs could also follow a pattern as with the case of Lesotho.
Foreign exchange and deficits: If demand for exports falls, Zambia’s foreign exchange inflows could drop. This may then widen the current account deficit and expand pressure on the kwacha. Zambia might have to increasingly rely on China and the E.U. to plug the hole.
Government and Policy Response
The Zambian government could try to negotiate exemptions or waivers with the United States. This might entail some diplomatic intervention via the Ministry of Commerce or Foreign Affairs. A few African countries have already started pressing for leniency, about the risks to jobs and trade.
The private sector is likely to pressure the government to offer support, potentially in the form of incentives for exporters or subsidies to help cover losses. Policy papers and Strategy documents themselves identify how market diversification is the order of the day.
Political and Strategic Implications
The tariffs are a chilling point for US–Africa trade relations. This could mark a turning point for Zambia, which has sought to balance relations between Western countries and China.
China is already Zambia’s biggest trade partner and top creditor. The new tariffs could drive Zambia even further into the arms of Beijing, entrenching its reliance on Chinese markets and finance.
The tariffs highlight the need for quicker and deeper implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA presents Zambia with a huge opportunity to increase its export earnings by tapping into the larger African market. The implementation strategy will positively contribute to job and wealth creation by increasing the productive capacities of MSMES and Cooperatives, through targeted interventions in sectors where Zambia has comparative and competitive advantage. By boosting intra-Africa trade, the AfCFTA also provides a buffer against external shocks and boosts economic resilience in an increasingly turbulent and multipolar global trade system.
What Should the Zambian Government Do
As Zambia confronts the US tariffs challenges, a forward-looking approach must extend beyond reactive trade policy to address fundamental structural questions. The Zambian government’s response should aim to strengthen regional trade relationships and explore new opportunities to exploit mineral wealth for growing sectors like electronics and renewable technologies.
Conclusion: Outlook, Recommendations or Strategic Shifts
The US move to mandate a blanket 15 percent duty on exports from Africa has an immediate impact on Zambia. While copper exemptions mean that Zambia will be less badly affected than other African countries, tariffs will hurt many growing sectors and the prospect of new copper tariffs cannot be ruled out. With new tariffs, greater instability, and the end of AGOA, Zambia can ill-afford to wait for US policy to change in its favor.
In the future, Zambia needs to move away from overreliance on its trading partners, embed itself further in the AfCFTA and to strategically engage with the US. The tariffs, then, create some risks, but they also serve as a reminder to build a more robust, diversified economy that can withstand sudden geopolitical reversals.
Andrew Munganga is the founder of Impact Center for Policy Research, a Zambian free market think tank.
Article first appeared on the Initiative for African Trade and Prosperity.
Photo by Markus Winkler via Unsplash.