In Nigeria, ethnic loyalties, regional blocs, and patronage networks shape elections long before voting begins. The 2023 elections exposed this reality with unusual clarity. Voting patterns aligned predictably with ethnic and religious loyalties. For example, much of the Southeast rallied behind Peter Obi. Campaigns reinforced existing religious and ethnic allegiances rather than reshaping voters’ preferences across those divides. This pattern flows from colonial divide-and-rule systems and post-independence arrangements like the federal character principle. Until voters prioritize competence and performance over ethnic and religious loyalty, elections will not reflect democratic progress. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), civil society groups, universities, and media houses should run voter education programs that teach citizens how to compare manifestos, verify claims, and track constituency projects.
When voters choose identity over ideas, political accountability from leaders collapses. Nigeria’s 26.7 percent voter turnout in 2023 reflects more than apathy. It signals a loss of faith in elections as instruments of change. For many, the outcome feels predetermined by demographic arithmetic rather than democratic choice. Yet identity voting is often rational. Weak institutions and uneven access to state resources push voters to fall back on ethnic and religious affiliation as protection. Political elites exploit insecurity, distrust, and dependence stemming from weak institutions, knowing that voters are more likely to choose ethnic or religious allegiance over viable policies. When identity decides elections, and competence and accountability become options, democracy loses its relevance.
Changing electoral and governance outcomes requires changing incentives. Electoral rules must compel candidates to compete based on progressive ideas. For example, rules should mandate candidates to televise debates.
Media organizations should standardize policy comparison platforms, making it easy for voters to evaluate candidates side by side. Civil society must go further, publishing independent scorecards that track promises against delivery, election after election.
Political parties also bear the responsibility of offering voters clear ideas, credible candidates, and accountable leadership, rather than ethnic or religious banners. Parties’ manifestos should focus on key sectors such as the economy, education, and healthcare, and candidates should defend their plans under scrutiny. Without clear ideological differences, political parties become vehicles for identity rather than platforms for policy. Internal reforms must prioritize competence in candidate selection. When performance becomes visible and measurable, identity loses its dominance. In Ghana, for example, debates over the country’s worst economic crisis, rather than by identities, shaped the 2024 elections. Ghana’s example shows that when political parties and candidates focus on policy and performance, public discourse and voter behavior become more issue-driven.
Changing electoral and governance outcomes requires changing incentives. Electoral rules must compel candidates to compete based on progressive ideas. For example, rules should mandate candidates to televise debates.
Media organizations should standardize policy comparison platforms, making it easy for voters to evaluate candidates side by side. Civil society must go further, publishing independent scorecards that track promises against delivery, election after election.
Political parties also bear the responsibility of offering voters clear ideas, credible candidates, and accountable leadership, rather than ethnic or religious banners. Parties’ manifestos should focus on key sectors such as the economy, education, and healthcare, and candidates should defend their plans under scrutiny. Without clear ideological differences, political parties become vehicles for identity rather than platforms for policy. Internal reforms must prioritize competence in candidate selection. When performance becomes visible and measurable, identity loses its dominance. In Ghana, for example, debates over the country’s worst economic crisis, rather than by identities, shaped the 2024 elections. Ghana’s example shows that when political parties and candidates focus on policy and performance, public discourse and voter behavior become more issue-driven.
No reform will succeed without a more politically literate public. Civic education must move beyond slogans. The National Orientation Agency, in collaboration with the INEC and the Federal Ministry of Education, should equip citizens with practical tools, including how to read budgets, track public spending, interrogate policy claims, and evaluate leadership performance. They should adopt platforms such as schools, news, social media, civil society programs, and community forums for this purpose.
Equally important is trust. Religious and traditional leaders, who command far greater public confidence than political institutions, should encourage policy-based participation. Their influence can shift norms faster than formal campaigns.
Literacy in the digital space is now essential. Voters must learn to identify misinformation, question viral narratives, and resist manipulation. Without this, identity politics will continue to thrive online, even as reforms attempt to reduce it. An informed electorate does not eliminate identity, but neutralizes its power to influence political decisions. Elections in Ghana, South Africa, and Botswana show that when voters focus more on performance and information, identity becomes a weaker shield for failing leaders.
Voters alone cannot solve the structural failures of the electoral system. The INEC must ensure accountability by enforcing the Electoral Act 2022, especially provisions on accreditation technology, result management, and transparency. Under Sections 47 and 60, voter accreditation and polling-unit result handling must be credible, while result uploads and public verification should be timely and accessible to strengthen trust. Election results should be transparent and verifiable in real time. The judiciary must be independent and efficient in resolving electoral disputes. Anti-corruption systems must function without political interference.
Nigeria’s ranking in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index is a warning that where institutions appear weak or compromised, citizens lose faith in public systems and retreat into ethnic, religious, or regional identity for political protection. There is a need to build institutions that citizens can trust more than identity, and vote based on performance. Also, political parties need more rigorous regulatory oversight. Transparent campaign financing and merit-based candidate selection are essential to breaking patronage cycles. In Ghana, credible oversight by the Electoral Commission of Ghana has encouraged performance-based voting. Stronger regulation, transparent campaign financing, and merit-based candidate selection. When institutions consistently enforce consequences, political actors adjust, political behavior changes, and voters choose performance over identity.
Nigeria’s problem is not diversity, but the misplacement of diversity as a substitute for competence. As long as identity determines political outcomes, governance will remain secondary to identity calculations, patronage interests, and the pursuit of political power through ethnic or religious loyalty. And as long as governance fails, citizens will continue to seek alternatives, including leaving the country. Nigeria must choose the path forward by changing voter incentives, educating voters, and strengthening public institutions.
Agbeye Oburumu is a writing fellow at African Liberty.
Sahara Reporters is a co-publisher of this article.
Photo by Salem Ochidi on Unsplash.